Warmer and windy following Arctic cold

Shaun Evertson
Posted 2/10/22

The first week of February began with snow and bitter cold but finished with sunshine,

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Warmer and windy following Arctic cold

Posted

KIMBALL – The first week of February began with snow and bitter cold but finished with sunshine, warmer air temperatures and quite brisk winds out of the north-northwest.

The snowfall total at Kimball was just less than three inches but in general it accumulated atop the remaining snow and ice deposited in early January, making for a very wintry looking High Plains landscape indeed.

As the snowfall eased late on Groundhog Day, icy Arctic air flowed into the region sending the mercury plummeting. The 48-hour average air temperature for February 2-3 was 2 degrees with overnight lows falling to -12 degrees.

Warmer air, lengthening days, and sunshine accompanied by brisk winds began melting snow and ice accumulations and by February 8 a great deal of the snow cover had gone. While much of the moisture evaporated, some of it began to soak into slowly thawing topsoil.

Regional forecast and conditions

As of Tuesday morning (February 8), the temperature at sunrise was 34 degrees under sunny skies. Winds were north-northwesterly at 15 gusting 21 mph and the barometer was rising at 30.15 inches of mercury (in/Hg).

Today’s weather (Friday, February 11) is forecast to be mostly sunny and breezy with a high temperature of 43 degrees. Overnight temperatures are expected to fall to about 15 under mostly clear skies. Day length will be 10 hours and 28 minutes, night length 13 hours and 32 minutes.

Saturday is expected to be sunny and breezy in the morning, then sunny and mostly calm after noon. The high should approach 41 degrees before falling off to about 22 degrees overnight.

Sunday’s forecast calls for continued sunshine and wind with a high of 51 and an overnight low of 22.

Conditions Monday-Wednesday are expected to be sunny and warm with continued breeziness. Daytime highs are expected to range in the low 50’s with overnight lows falling into the mid-20’s. As of February 8, no precipitation was forecast through mid-week.

At Kimball the February 1-7 daytime high averaged 30.57 degrees, about 8.57 degrees cooler than last week. The weekly high temperature was 48 degrees on February 7. Overnight lows averaged 7.0 degrees, about 8.28 degrees cooler than last week. The weekly low temperature was -12 degrees on February 3. The weekly mean temperature at Kimball was 18.8 degrees, about 8.4 degrees cooler than last week and 10.6 degrees cooler than the February average of 29.4 degrees. The long-term average high and low temperatures at Kimball for February are 43.0 and 15.7, respectively.

Kimball received 1.0 inches of snow (0.08 inches liquid) on February 1 and 1.75 inches of snow (0.27 inches liquid) on February 2. Precipitation totaled 2.75 inches snow/0.35 inches liquid over the February 1-7 period. 

Winds near Kimball averaged west southwesterly over the February 1-7 period. Gusts for the week averaged 24.42 mph. High gust for the week was 38 mph on February 5.

Historic climate data

Here’s an overview of February 11 temperature and precipitation highs, lows, and averages over the preceding 129 years at Kimball. Data is taken from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (www.hprcc.unl.edu), where you can find and track data for your own particular location.

Last year (February 11, 2021): Daily high temperature 9 degrees, overnight low -7 degrees, average temperature 1.0 degrees. Precipitation zero inches, snowfall zero inches, snow depth zero inches.

The warmest February 11 on record was 76 degrees in 1962. The coolest February 11 high temperature was -1 degrees in 1981. The coldest February 11 overnight low was -30 degrees in 1889. The warmest February 11 overnight low was 38 degrees in 1990. Over the years since 1893 the high temperature on February 11 has averaged 41.1 degrees, the overnight low 13.2 degrees, the daily average 27.1 degrees, precipitation has averaged 0.01 inches, snowfall 0.2 inches, snow depth zero inches.

The highest February 11 precipitation total was 0.30 inches (3.0 inches snow) liquid equivalent in 1910, while the highest snow depth was 6.0 inches in 20.14.

USDA weekly weather and crop bulletin, February 8

A significant snow and ice storm unfolded during the first several days of February from central and southern sections of the Rockies and Plains into the mid-South, lower Midwest, and Northeast. The storm provided much needed moisture on the southern Plains, benefiting drought stressed rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. Along the storm’s trailing cold front, heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms swept across portions of the Gulf Coast region. Meanwhile, little or no precipitation occurred across the remainder of the country, except the Pacific Northwest. Across much of the western U.S., a mid-winter dry spell extended through a fifth consecutive week. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada remained stalled near 16 inches, less than 90 percent of the early-February average. 

Weekly temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees below normal in parts of the central and southern Rockies, as well as adjacent areas across the Intermountain West and southern High Plains. A post-storm cold wave resulted in sub-zero temperatures on the Plains as far south as northern Texas. By February 5, sub-32 degrees readings reached into Deep South Texas, although temperature-sensitive crops appeared to be spared due to limited freeze intensity and short freeze duration. In contrast, near- to slightly above-normal temperatures covered several areas, including parts of the Southeast, the northern High Plains, and the Far West. 

U.S. drought monitor

USDM reports derive normals/averages from the most recent 30-year period, though longer timescale data are used where available. The USDM generally reports on current drought conditions and offers a comprehensive history of drought across the Continental U.S. Near-term temperature and precipitation predictions derive from National Weather Service (NWS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts.

Current drought status for the Nebraska Panhandle, Southwest Wyoming, and Northeast Colorado. Drought Categories: D0 -- abnormally dry. D1 -- moderate drought. D2 -- severe drought. D3 -- extreme drought. D4 -- exceptional drought.

(February 1, 2022) With a few notable exceptions, the past week was mostly dry in the contiguous U.S. Heavy rain fell in southeast Texas this week, where large parts of ongoing drought or abnormal dryness saw improvement or full removal. Widespread precipitation of over a half inch fell in the Pacific Northwest, though this was primarily in areas not experiencing drought or was not enough to result in improvements to drought conditions. Heavy snow fell in a localized band across parts of western Kansas and eastern Colorado, totaling 27 inches at Mt. Sunflower, Kansas. Snow also fell in the Denver area. These snow events allowed for improvement to ongoing severe and extreme drought. After heavy snow in December helped to build up high elevation snowpack in the West, particularly in California, very dry weather took over in January across much of the region, halting improvements to drought conditions and raising concerns about lagging snowpack if the drier weather continues as forecast. The large-scale winter storm affecting the central and southern Great Plains, Midwest, and parts of the eastern U.S. from the afternoon of February 1 through February 4 will not be accounted for until next week’s map.

High Plains: This week a narrow band of heavy snow fell in eastern Colorado and western Kansas, leading to small improvements in severe and extreme drought in these areas. Extreme drought also improved in the Denver area. Due to improved precipitation deficits, improved snowpack, and improved soil moisture conditions, moderate and severe drought were improved in southeast and west-central Wyoming. Increasing short-term precipitation deficits, along with unusually warm and windy weather, led to an expansion of severe drought in northwest South Dakota. Short-term precipitation deficits are also starting to build across southwest North Dakota. In northwest North Dakota, increased snowpack allowed for a reduction in moderate, severe, and extreme drought. Conditions continued to dry in the short-term in central and eastern Nebraska, where moderate drought increased in coverage and abnormal dryness grew slightly near and north of Lincoln.

West: Weather across the West region was mostly dry this week. A small area of precipitation along the Idaho/Montana border improved conditions enough for a small reduction in abnormal dryness there. Exceptional drought was introduced in and around Roswell, New Mexico this week, due to significant short-term precipitation deficits and warm and windy conditions that have resulted in the loss of topsoil. After a very dry January, high elevation snowpack in parts of the West has begun to drift away from the above-normal values from the start of the new year.

Near-term forecast: The 6–10-day outlook calls for drier than normal weather across much of the West region. Drier weather was also favored from the central and southern Great Plains east to the Atlantic Coast. Wetter than normal weather was favored in south Texas, the northern Great Plains, and northwest Great Lakes. Warmer than normal temperatures were strongly favored along the Pacific Coast, and in the central and northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. From New Mexico eastward, colder than normal temperatures were favored across the far southern U.S.

Terminology: EDDI -- Evaporative Demand Drought Index. This is an experimental model for drought prediction, using nationwide data from 1980-present. SPE -- Standardized Precipitation index, correlating present month/year precipitation with 30-plus year historical data. SPEI -- Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. SWE -- Snow Water Equivalent. 

For more information on the U.S. Drought Monitor, including an explanation of terminology, visit: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu.