Variability

Cow-Calf Commentary

Shaun Evertson
Posted 12/22/17

Summer faded slowly, oh-so-slowly, into a lingering, mostly pleasant autumn this year.

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Variability

Cow-Calf Commentary

Posted

KIMBALL, Neb. – Summer faded slowly, oh-so-slowly, into a lingering, mostly pleasant autumn this year. Other than the few skiffs of snow, a handful of nearly cold days, and the brisk hammering of intermittent wind spells, the weather has been pleasant for a long time.
The mild conditions made fall chores on the ranch a good bit easier than in many years. We had little trouble finding pleasant days for moving herds, sorting calves and weaning, preg-checking and sorting cows, vaccinating and pouring, and hauling grain and hay.
But as they do every year, the days got shorter and the temperatures fell off. Now that we’ve passed the winter solstice and the days are getting longer, winter – real winter – is just around the corner. And that’s as it should be.
Last year winter came early. Looking back over my weather log I see first frost came on Oct. 5, and the first hard freeze on Oct. 12. Snow held off until mid-November, but we had four inches on the ground by Thanksgiving, and plenty more fell in December. From then until the spring melt there was usually snow cover on the ground.
This year has been different so far, but if the weather guessers are correct, we may be in for a white Christmas. Certainly it will be much colder. The upper air ridge which has allowed warmer-than-average temperatures to hang on until the very cusp of celestial winter is on the move, and Arctic air is expected to flow southward with gusto.
North of the border in Canada, which is also north of the now-shifting upper air ridge, they’ve had record cold and snow. South and east of the High Plains there has also been unexpected cold and snow.

It’s probably worth remembering that weather actually takes place in the real world; not in computer models or on television or the internet.
Also worth remembering is that we’ve only been keeping detailed weather records for at most a few hundred years. In only the last 123 years, December has been warmer than 2017 a number of times, making this year’s Christmas month a bit warmer than average, but far from unusual.
That’s the thing about our Earthly climate. It’s variable. And that means that variations are normal, rather than harbingers of disaster.
Far away in the equatorial Pacific, it looks as if the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) pattern is changing, moving from El Nino conditions to La Nina conditions. It’s far too soon to say for sure, but after three- or four-years of very good weather conditions across the High Plains, we may be in for a period of less good conditions.
Multiple years of more than adequate precipitation and less than harsh winters have allowed nature to produce above average vegetation. This has, in turn, allowed animal populations to boom. Few farmers and ranchers have failed to notice the increase in rabbit and other rodent populations over the last few years.
Predator populations have boomed as well. With so many rabbits, mice, voles, ground squirrels and more, there has been plenty of food to go around. Coyotes are whelping larger litters, weasels seem to be everywhere, badgers are multiplying. Once rare fox sightings are now common and prairie dogs are expanding into new territories.
This is the way of things during good years across the High Plains. But it is also the way of things that good years give way to bad years. Where there has been abundant rainfall, there will be in the future a drought. And vice-versa. This is the way of things, the variability
of climate.
When the next drought comes – and it may be here even now – nature’s vegetation will become sparse. Herbivorous wildlife populations will go hungry and populations will fall. Predator populations will likewise fall as food becomes scarce.
Pasture and rangeland will produce less forage and carry fewer cattle. Cropland yields will be reduced.
This is simply the natural ebb and flow of life on the High Plains. As my Grandpa Wilbur told me years ago, enjoy the good times and endure the hard times. It’s a recipe for success.