Thunderstorms bring slight relief to summer dryness

Shaun Everston
Posted 7/21/17

Daytime high temperatures were actually cooler last week than the previous week owing to the slow passage of of a weather system.

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Thunderstorms bring slight relief to summer dryness

Posted

KIMBALL – Daytime high temperatures were actually cooler last week than the previous week owing to the slow passage of of a weather system. By Wednesday morning, however, summer heat was returning to the region and looked to stick around for a few days.
A widespread series of afternoon and evening thunderstorms associated with the passing weather system delivered a bit of relief Monday evening. At Kimball, 0.39 inches of rain fell with the brief thunderstorm.
Like much of the rest of the region, Kimball has been very short – nearly five inches below average – on rainfall since the beginning of June. Fortunately, adequate soil moisture has generally been present following heavy spring precipitation, but that banked soil moisture was certainly becoming short. Monday’s rain – while less than hoped for – nevertheless came at a good time to boost warm season grass production, which should be good news for those with cattle on pasture.
As welcome as the rain was, more will be needed if dryland summer crops are to produce a decent yield. South of Kimball both millet and dryland corn are looking quite parched.
Wheat harvest was winding down over the last week as harvest crews enjoyed near-perfect conditions for combining. Early reports indicate a better than average crop this year.

Regional Forecast and Conditions
As of Tuesday morning (July 18) conditions at Kimball were breaking fog following an overnight thunderstorm, and warming towards a forecast high of 93 degrees. For Wednesday-Friday daytime temperatures were expected to be quite hot, followed by a slight cooling trend Saturday-Wednesday, with daily high temperatures forecast to rise only into the mid-80’s.
A slightly increased chance of widespread thunderstorms is forecast for the coming week. Skies are expected to be generally sunny with the usual summertime chance of scattered, localized thunderstorms.
Air temperatures cooled slightly across the region last week. At Kimball the July 11-17 daytime high averaged 88.85 degrees, about 5 degrees cooler than the previous week. The weekly high temperature was 96 degrees on July 17. Overnight lows averaged 57.42 degrees, about one degree cooler than the previous week. The weekly low temperature was 52 degrees on July 13. The weekly mean temperature was 73.14 degrees, about 2.5 degrees cooler than the previous week, and 2 degrees warmer than the July average of 71.8. The long term average high and low temperatures at Kimball for July are 87.4 and 56.1 degrees, respectively.
Twelve of 13 Panhandle stations reported precipitation over the July 11-17 period, ranging from 0.01 at Scottsbluff and Sidney Municipal to 0.40 inches at Big Springs. Panhandle precipitation averaged 0.13 inches compared to 0.12 inches last week.
Panhandle soil temperatures were very little changed over the July 11-17 period: (this week/last week/change): Alliance 79.1/78.6 (+0.5) degrees; Gordon 82.6/80.2 (+2.4) degrees; Mitchell 87.9/88.4 (-0.5) degrees; Scottsbluff 81.0/80.8 (+0.2); and Sidney 81.5/81.3 (+0.2) degrees.
Winds near Kimball averaged east-northeasterly and quite light over the July 11-17 period. Gusts for the week averaged 25.57 mph. High gust for the week was 43 mph on July 17.

July 21 Weather Almanac
Here’s an overview of July 21 temperature and precipitation highs, lows, and averages over the preceding 123 years at Kimball. Data is taken from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (www.hprcc.unl.edu), where you can easily find and track data for your own particular location.
Last year (July 21, 2016): Daily high temperature 98 degrees, overnight low 61 degrees, average temperature 79.5 degrees. Precipitation 0.0 inches, snowfall zero inches, snow depth zero inches.
The warmest July 21 on record was 104 degrees in 1934. The coolest July 21 high temperature was 63 degrees in 1990. The coldest July 21 overnight low was 47 degrees in 1902. The warmest July 21 overnight low was 66 degrees in 2002. Over the years since 1893 the high temperature on July 21 has averaged 86 degrees, the overnight low 57 degrees, the daily average 71.7 degrees, precipitation has averaged 0.10 inches, snowfall zero inches, snow depth zero inches.
The highest July 21 precipitation total was 1.77 inches in 1990.
Snow has fallen on July 21 at Kimball zero times over the last 123 years.

U.S. Drought Monitor
(July 11) The High Plains: Areas of Moderate Drought (D1), Severe Drought (D2), and Extreme Drought (D3) expanded across eastern Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota where hot and dry conditions continued as well as reports of declining crop conditions and hay shortages.
In South Dakota, “soybeans statewide are showing thin stands, slow growth, and small size for this time of time year” according to the South Dakota State University (SDSU) Extension.
In North Dakota, small grain crop failures are being reported as well as reports of producers selling off livestock.
According to the USDA’s latest Crop Progress, the percentage of topsoil rated very short to short is as follows: Montana (89 percent), South Dakota (79 percent), Nebraska (65 percent), and North Dakota (62 percent).
In eastern Montana, hot and dry weather persisted with limited precipitation. According to the July 10th Montana Crop Progress (USDA), “Haying is running at least two weeks ahead of schedule in some parts of the state, but little is on the market as livestock operations are hesitant to sell given that much of the state is experiencing drought.”
In the southern Plains, some minor improvements were made in areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) in Oklahoma where precipitation has been above normal during the past 30 days in contrast to below normal precipitation in central and western portions of the state where areas of Moderate Drought (D1) expanded.

During the past week, average temperatures in the northern Plains and eastern Montana were 4 to 10-plus degrees above normal with the greatest anomalies observed in eastern Montana where temperatures soared into the low 100s. Overall, the region saw some isolated storms which produced only minor accumulations – generally less than 1 inch.
National Summary: This U.S. Drought Monitor week saw hot and dry conditions persist across the western U.S as a ridge of high pressure anchored over the region exacerbated drought conditions in eastern Montana as well as elevating fire danger across the region. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, ~70 large wildfires are currently burning across the West.
On Friday and Saturday, daily high-temperature records were broken at various locations including: Las Vegas (116), Los Angeles (98), Phoenix (118), Reno (104), Boise (104), and Salt Lake City (104).
Some relief from the heat came as monsoonal circulation returned to the Southwest bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Southwest and eastern Great Basin, although accumulations were generally less than 1 inch for the week.
In drought-stricken areas of eastern Montana and the Dakotas, excessive heat continued to deplete soil moisture and further stressed rain-fed crops, pastures, and rangelands. In South Dakota, 72 percent of the spring wheat crop is currently rated as poor to very poor while Montana is not far behind at 62 percent. Overall, declining conditions have resulted in the U.S. spring wheat crop being rated at 39 in poor to very poor condition.
Further south in Oklahoma, rainfall during the past several weeks has led to improvements in soil moisture in eastern and southern portions of the state. Elsewhere, short-term precipitation deficits and dry soils led to expansion of areas of moderate drought in Iowa while the eastern U.S. remained drought-free on this week’s map.
For more information on the U.S. Drought Monitor visit: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

U.S. Conditions and Weather Report
(July 18) The northern Plains faced further deterioration of crop and pasture conditions, as only widely scattered showers accompanied periods of
extreme heat.
The week’s hottest weather, relative to normal, gripped the drought-stricken northern High Plains, where temperatures frequently topped 100 degrees and averaged as much as 10 degrees above normal.
Hot weather (temperatures at least 5 degrees above normal) also extended southward through the nation’s mid-section and across most of the western U.S., although a few areas – notably, the central Plains and the Four Corners States – received beneficial moisture in the form of locally heavy showers.
The Southwestern rainfall, which triggered local flooding, was largely due to the seasonal establishment of the monsoon circulation.
The remainder of the West experienced mostly dry weather, allowing dozens of wildfires to flourish amid hot, occasionally breezy conditions.
Elsewhere, separate areas of widespread showers affected the eastern half of the nation. In particular, heavy showers occurred in the Deep South and from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast, sparking local flooding but generally benefiting pastures and
summer crops.
Cooler-than-normal conditions were limited to scattered areas in the Great Lakes and Northeastern States.

USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Reports
Nebraska
For the week ending July 16, 2017, temperatures averaged two to six degrees above normal.
Significant rainfall of an inch or more was received in the eastern half of Nebraska; however, the western half of the State remained relatively dry.
Topsoil moisture supplies rated 29 percent very short, 36 short, 35 adequate, and 0 surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 22 percent very short, 35 short, 43 adequate, and 0 surplus.
Winter wheat harvested was near completion in the southern counties.
There were 6.2 days suitable for fieldwork.
Corn condition rated 4 percent very poor, 8 poor, 23 fair, 52 good, and 13 excellent. Corn silking was 47 percent, near 51 last year and 48 for the five-year average.
Soybean condition rated 4 percent very poor, 8 poor, 25 fair, 56 good, and 7 excellent. Soybeans blooming was 66 percent, ahead of 50 last year and 56 average. Setting pods was 11 percent, ahead of 1 last year, and equal to average.
Winter wheat mature was 98 percent. Harvested was 83 percent, ahead of 70 last year, and well ahead of 58 average.
Sorghum condition rated 3 percent very poor, 3 poor, 33 fair, 46 good, and 15 excellent. Sorghum headed was 5 percent, near 6 last year and 8 average.
Oats condition rated 2 percent very poor, 3 poor, 41 fair, 49 good, and 5 excellent. Oats coloring was 97 percent, ahead of 92 last year. Mature was 84 percent. Harvested was 47 percent, near 46 last year and 44 average.
Alfalfa condition rated 4 percent very poor, 13 poor, 33 fair, 45 good, and 5 excellent. Alfalfa second cutting was 84 percent complete, ahead of 77 last year and 68 average. Third cutting was 15 percent.
Dry edible beans condition rated 7 percent very poor, 16 poor, 24 fair, 38 good, and 15 excellent. Dry edible beans blooming was 35 percent, ahead of 26 last year and 21 average.
Pasture and range conditions rated 6 percent very poor, 20 poor, 39 fair, 33 good, and 2 excellent.
Stock water supplies rated 4 percent very short, 10 short, 86 adequate, and 0 surplus.

Wyoming
Wyoming experienced warmer than normal temperatures for the week. All of the 34 stations reported above average temperatures for the week with the high temperature of 102 degrees recorded at Torrington and a low of 39 degrees at Lake Yellowstone.
Seven stations reported no precipitation and Newcastle had the most precipitation with 0.84 inches. Thirty of the 34 stations received below normal precipitation.
A reporter from North Central Wyoming indicted that they have had very warm days with warm winds which have brought thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and some rain. They also report that livestock have moved to mountain pastures and weevils have been a big issue this year.
A reporter from Eastern Wyoming noted that despite the rain that they have received fire danger is very high and hay yields are very low. They also report that pasture conditions vary quite a lot with the cool season grasses doing the best.
A reporter from Western Wyoming reported that it was very hot and sunny for the past week with limited thunderstorm activity. They also indicated that most producers have their first crop of hay up.
A reporter from South Central Wyoming noted that it was hot, and very dry with pastures drying up and meadows maturing very quickly. They also report that the hay crop is sub-par and stock water will soon be a problem. Another reporter from South Central Wyoming commented that producers will be pulling cattle off summer pastures early due to hot dry conditions.
A reporter from Southeast Wyoming indicated that there have been some sprinkles of rain, but not enough to do much other than shut off the wheat harvesters. Another reporter from Southeast Wyoming indicated that summer conditions persist and the cool season grasses have completed the annual
growth cycle.
Stock water supplies across Wyoming were rated 9 percent very short, 12 percent short, and 79 percent adequate.

Colorado
Winter wheat harvest progressed significantly across the state this past week due to continued hot and dry conditions.
Isolated thunderstorms were reported in several localities, with varied precipitation received. Irrigated crops are reported to be doing well with the warm temperatures, but in areas where moisture has been sparse, pasture and dryland crops are showing signs of stress.
Virtually all winter wheat was mature by week’s end and other crops are progressing well with increased heat units. Winter wheat harvest was ahead of the average by week’s end. Winter wheat condition was rated 48 percent good to excellent statewide, compared with 70 percent good to excellent last year.
Stored feed supplies were rated 4 percent short, 83 percent adequate, and 13
percent surplus.
Sheep death loss was 65 percent average and 35 percent light. Cattle death loss was 1 percent heavy, 68 percent average, and 31 percent light.